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Txalupas Bilbao

Founded 1939 in Bilbao

Pabellón de la Ría, holding 10 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Txalupas Bilbao's wins match its points

+0.6 wins

Txalupas Bilbao's points say about 8 wins in 17 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

8.4Points say

88.9Scored a game

89.0Allowed a game

−0.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 511
Points allowed	1 513
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0013
To the power of 14	1.0187
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0187)	49.54%
× 17 games played	8.42
Wins the points say	8.4 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Txalupas Bilbao won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

37.3

Txalupas Bilbao attempt 37.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.7, so 2nd of 18.

TXB 37.3 %

League 31.7 %

How we counted it

Txalupas Bilbao: 387 tries ÷ 1 038 shots	37.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	31.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

Weakness

Weak on the glass

26.2 %

Txalupas Bilbao win back 26.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.5 %. That is 14th of 18.

TXB 26.2 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Txalupas Bilbao: 129 ÷ (129 + 363)	26.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	14th of 18

Weakness

A leaky defence

115.8

Txalupas Bilbao let in 115.8 per 100 trips against the league's 114.4. Lower is better: 13th of 18.

TXB 115.8

League 114.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 513 allowed ÷ 1 306 possessions	115.8
League mean, 18 clubs	114.4
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

Best shot-maker

Danilo Balsys

#68 · SF

32/59shots

75points

+9.3vs expected

How we counted it

32 made of 59, 11 of them threes	32/59
Points: 2 × 32 + 11	75
His shots are worth (expected)	65.7
Above expected	75 − 65.7 = +9.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 18

TXB 57.3 %

League 56.1 %

How we counted it

Txalupas Bilbao: (515 + ½ × 159) ÷ 1 038	57.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	56.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	6th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 18

TXB 19.7 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Txalupas Bilbao: 257 ÷ 1 302 possessions	19.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	11th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 18

TXB 26.2 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Txalupas Bilbao: 129 ÷ (129 + 363)	26.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	14th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 18

TXB 37.3 %

League 31.7 %

How we counted it

Txalupas Bilbao: 387 tries ÷ 1 038 shots	37.3 %
League mean, 18 clubs	31.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	2nd of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+16.2

Over 8 games Txalupas Bilbao's shots were worth 518.8 points and they scored 535 from the floor: 2.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 232 + 71	535
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	518.8
Shot-making	+16.2
A game	+2.02

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Txalupas Bilbao
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 242 league shots	10	0.87	8.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 392	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 392	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 392	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 221 league shots	15	0.86	12.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	3	0.84	2.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot42 % of 232 league shots	8	0.84	6.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 312	1	0.89	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 312	1	0.89	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 312	1	0.89	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up42 % of 612 league shots	36	0.83	30.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 840	8	0.81	6.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 840	10	0.81	8.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 840	1	0.81	0.8
Rim · Drive64 % of 1 385 league shots	75	1.28	96.2
Rim · Drive · second chance59 % of 217 league shots	12	1.17	14.0
Rim · Drive · fast break69 % of 513 league shots	20	1.37	27.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 2 192	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Post-up62 % of 351 league shots	31	1.24	38.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 453	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 453	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot60 % of 384 league shots	16	1.19	19.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 594	9	1.23	11.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 594	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 261	4	1.35	5.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 261	1	1.35	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 261	5	1.35	6.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 262	19	1.13	21.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 262	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 262	5	1.13	5.7
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 262	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 672	3	1.09	3.3
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 949 league shots	102	1.10	112.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 337 league shots	11	1.03	11.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 383 league shots	10	1.06	10.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 716	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Pull-up38 % of 498 league shots	24	1.13	27.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 676	3	1.08	3.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 676	3	1.08	3.2
Total adds up	467	1.11	518.8

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Where Txalupas Bilbao shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

467 of 467 shots shown

49.7%

232 of 467 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 119 / 182 65% · avg 1.9 ft 71 of the 119 makes assisted league 65% 238pts

MID 42 / 100 42% · avg 14.0 ft 21 of the 42 makes assisted league 42% 84pts

THREE 71 / 185 38% · avg 25.3 ft 56 of the 71 makes assisted league 36% 213pts

232 of 467 from the floor, 535 points, + 165 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

148 of 232 makes were assisted (64%): 71 + 21 + 56.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Txalupas Bilbao

39% 21% 40%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Txalupas Bilbao

33% 13% 34% 20%

League

32% 8% 40% 20%

Txalupas Bilbao lean on post-ups: 12.6 % of its shots against the league's 8.3 %.

How we counted it

Txalupas Bilbao: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	152 drives + 59 post-ups + 161 catch and shoot + 95 pull-ups = 467

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Danilo Balsys SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/59 shots 65.7 expected 75 scored ▲ +9.3

Eneko Maldonado SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/53 shots 56.6 expected 60 scored ▲ +3.4

Pau Cordero SG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

42/90 shots 101.1 expected 100 scored ▼ −1.1

Gregorio Pacheco PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/71 shots 75.4 expected 72 scored ▼ −3.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.