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Uljari Kaštela

Founded 1975 in Kaštela

Dvorana kod Starog maslina, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Uljari Kaštela's wins match its points

−0.3 wins

Uljari Kaštela's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.3Points say

85.6Scored a game

82.2Allowed a game

+3.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 113
Points allowed	1 069
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9605
To the power of 14	0.5685
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5685)	63.75%
× 13 games played	8.29
Wins the points say	8.3 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Uljari Kaštela won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

115.5

Uljari Kaštela score 115.5 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 109.6. That is 1st of 14.

UKA 115.5

League 109.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 113 points ÷ 964 possessions	115.5
League mean, 14 clubs	109.6
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

31.7 %

Uljari Kaštela win back 31.7 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.5 %. That is 2nd of 14.

UKA 31.7 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Uljari Kaštela: 140 ÷ (140 + 302)	31.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.4 %

Uljari Kaštela give it away on 16.4 % of trips against the league's 18.2 %. Fewer is better: 3rd of 14.

UKA 16.4 %

League 18.2 %

How we counted it

Uljari Kaštela: 158 ÷ 964 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Ceferino Veiga

#16 · SG

47/84shots

112points

+22.5vs expected

How we counted it

47 made of 84, 18 of them threes	47/84
Points: 2 × 47 + 18	112
His shots are worth (expected)	89.5
Above expected	112 − 89.5 = +22.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 14

UKA 52.8 %

League 53.0 %

How we counted it

Uljari Kaštela: (404 + ½ × 105) ÷ 865	52.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	53.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

UKA 16.4 %

League 18.2 %

How we counted it

Uljari Kaštela: 158 ÷ 964 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 14

UKA 31.7 %

League 27.5 %

How we counted it

Uljari Kaštela: 140 ÷ (140 + 302)	31.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 14

UKA 28.3 %

League 27.4 %

How we counted it

Uljari Kaštela: 245 tries ÷ 865 shots	28.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	27.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+4.2

Over 6 games Uljari Kaštela's shots were worth 406.8 points and they scored 411 from the floor: 0.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+4.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 180 + 51	411
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	406.8
Shot-making	+4.2
A game	+0.70

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Uljari Kaštela
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	13	0.74	9.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 234	4	0.74	2.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	8	0.77	6.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 093	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	14	0.80	11.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 214	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 348 league shots	35	0.80	28.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	7	0.79	5.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 488	7	0.79	5.5
Rim · Drive64 % of 862 league shots	60	1.28	76.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 367	8	1.25	10.0
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 322 league shots	24	1.25	30.0
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	10	1.25	12.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	5	1.25	6.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 255	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	10	1.30	12.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	2	1.30	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	2	1.30	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 281	3	1.30	3.9
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 023	2	1.26	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	7	1.00	7.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 155	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 238 league shots	81	1.07	86.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	19	1.04	19.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 201 league shots	11	1.16	12.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 666	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 254 league shots	23	0.87	20.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 327	4	0.88	3.5
Total adds up	386	1.05	406.8

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Where Uljari Kaštela shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

386 of 386 shots shown

46.6%

180 of 386 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 96 / 136 71% · avg 1.9 ft 52 of the 96 makes assisted league 62% 192pts

MID 33 / 95 35% · avg 14.3 ft 10 of the 33 makes assisted league 41% 66pts

THREE 51 / 155 33% · avg 25.1 ft 44 of the 51 makes assisted league 34% 153pts

180 of 386 from the floor, 411 points, + 112 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

106 of 180 makes were assisted (59%): 52 + 10 + 44.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Uljari Kaštela

35% 25% 40%

League

38% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Uljari Kaštela

32% 9% 38% 22%

League

33% 8% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Uljari Kaštela: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	122 drives + 34 post-ups + 146 catch and shoot + 84 pull-ups = 386

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ceferino Veiga SG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

47/84 shots 89.5 expected 112 scored ▲ +22.5

Vjekoslav Alimi PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/65 shots 71.6 expected 82 scored ▲ +10.4

Časlav Gligorić PF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/61 shots 63.2 expected 56 scored ▼ −7.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.