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Usnjarji Šoštanj

Founded 1955 in Šoštanj

Dvorana ob Paki, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Usnjarji Šoštanj's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Usnjarji Šoštanj's points say about 9 wins in 18 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

8.8Points say

76.1Scored a game

76.4Allowed a game

−0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 370
Points allowed	1 375
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0036
To the power of 14	1.0523
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0523)	48.73%
× 18 games played	8.77
Wins the points say	8.8 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Usnjarji Šoštanj won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.8 %

Usnjarji Šoštanj win back 23.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.3 %. That is 8th of 10.

USS 23.8 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Usnjarji Šoštanj: 150 ÷ (150 + 481)	23.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Weakness

A thin attack

103.2

Usnjarji Šoštanj score 103.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.2. That is 7th of 10.

USS 103.2

League 105.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 370 points ÷ 1 327 possessions	103.2
League mean, 10 clubs	105.2
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Strength

A solid defence

104.1

Usnjarji Šoštanj let in 104.1 per 100 trips against the league's 105.2. Lower is better: 4th of 10.

USS 104.1

League 105.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 375 allowed ÷ 1 321 possessions	104.1
League mean, 10 clubs	105.2
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Best shot-maker

Iztok Cansız

#40 · PG

36/70shots

87points

+16.2vs expected

How we counted it

36 made of 70, 15 of them threes	36/70
Points: 2 × 36 + 15	87
His shots are worth (expected)	70.8
Above expected	87 − 70.8 = +16.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 10

USS 50.1 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Usnjarji Šoštanj: (509 + ½ × 151) ÷ 1 167	50.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 10

USS 16.3 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Usnjarji Šoštanj: 216 ÷ 1 327 possessions	16.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 10

USS 23.8 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Usnjarji Šoštanj: 150 ÷ (150 + 481)	23.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 10

USS 23.1 %

League 22.2 %

How we counted it

Usnjarji Šoštanj: 270 tries ÷ 1 167 shots	23.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	22.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+26.8

Over 8 games Usnjarji Šoštanj's shots were worth 507.2 points and they scored 534 from the floor: 3.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+26.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 232 + 70	534
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	507.2
Shot-making	+26.8
A game	+3.35

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Usnjarji Šoštanj
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 216 league shots	24	0.74	17.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	3	0.76	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	6	0.76	4.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 317	3	0.76	2.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 258	19	0.76	14.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 258	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 203 league shots	33	0.76	25.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 280	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 280	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 373 league shots	44	0.83	36.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 498	3	0.79	2.4
Rim · Drive58 % of 819 league shots	88	1.17	102.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 251	14	1.21	16.9
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 249 league shots	20	1.28	25.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	12	1.23	14.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	14	1.16	16.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	6	1.16	7.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 225	2	1.16	2.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 765	2	1.23	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	4	1.01	4.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 194	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 291 league shots	106	1.05	110.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 207 league shots	22	0.84	18.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 204 league shots	16	0.97	15.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 728	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Pull-up31 % of 254 league shots	28	0.94	26.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	3	0.95	2.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 345	1	0.95	1.0
Total adds up	509	1.00	507.2

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Where Usnjarji Šoštanj shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

509 of 509 shots shown

45.6%

232 of 509 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 98 / 169 58% · avg 2.2 ft 56 of the 98 makes assisted league 61% 196pts

MID 64 / 151 42% · avg 14.5 ft 33 of the 64 makes assisted league 38% 128pts

THREE 70 / 189 37% · avg 25.1 ft 59 of the 70 makes assisted league 32% 210pts

232 of 509 from the floor, 534 points, + 88 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

148 of 232 makes were assisted (64%): 56 + 33 + 59.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Usnjarji Šoštanj

33% 30% 37%

League

34% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Usnjarji Šoštanj

32% 41% 19%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Usnjarji Šoštanj: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	165 drives + 38 post-ups + 207 catch and shoot + 99 pull-ups = 509

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Iztok Cansız PG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/70 shots 70.8 expected 87 scored ▲ +16.2

Darcy Hopgood SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

59/129 shots 127.3 expected 135 scored ▲ +7.7

Rajko Štern PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

23/54 shots 51.4 expected 52 scored ▲ +0.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.