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Vegueros Don Benito

Founded 1968 in Don Benito

Pabellón de las Vegas, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Vegueros Don Benito's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Vegueros Don Benito's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

7.1Points say

74.7Scored a game

73.7Allowed a game

+1.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	971
Points allowed	958
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9866
To the power of 14	0.8280
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8280)	54.70%
× 13 games played	7.11
Wins the points say	7.1 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Vegueros Don Benito won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.6 %

Vegueros Don Benito win back 24.6 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.7 %. That is 11th of 14.

VDB 24.6 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: 113 ÷ (113 + 346)	24.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

49.4 %

Vegueros Don Benito shoot 49.4 % effective. The league shoots 48.4 %. That is 5th of 14.

VDB 49.4 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: (366 + ½ × 108) ÷ 851	49.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.4 %

Vegueros Don Benito give it away on 15.4 % of trips against the league's 16.1 %. Fewer is better: 5th of 14.

VDB 15.4 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: 145 ÷ 939 possessions	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Best shot-maker

Sebastián Borba

#73 · SG

32/69shots

80points

+17.6vs expected

How we counted it

32 made of 69, 16 of them threes	32/69
Points: 2 × 32 + 16	80
His shots are worth (expected)	62.4
Above expected	80 − 62.4 = +17.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

VDB 49.4 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: (366 + ½ × 108) ÷ 851	49.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 14

VDB 15.4 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: 145 ÷ 939 possessions	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 14

VDB 24.6 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: 113 ÷ (113 + 346)	24.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 14

VDB 20.9 %

League 21.4 %

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: 178 tries ÷ 851 shots	20.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−2.1

Over 6 games Vegueros Don Benito's shots were worth 368.1 points and they scored 366 from the floor: 0.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−2.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 156 + 54	366
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	368.1
Shot-making	−2.1
A game	−0.36

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Vegueros Don Benito
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 224 league shots	18	0.74	13.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 311	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 311	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 311	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 233	9	0.72	6.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 233	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	25	0.74	18.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 261	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 396 league shots	39	0.68	26.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	4	0.66	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	1	0.66	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 509	1	0.66	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 873 league shots	55	1.17	64.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 378	7	1.18	8.3
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 294 league shots	15	1.23	18.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 378	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 210	14	1.15	16.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 58 % of 210	7	1.15	8.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	10	1.19	11.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	5	1.19	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 207	4	1.19	4.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 860	4	1.18	4.7
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	6	0.92	5.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	2	0.92	1.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 285	2	0.92	1.8
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 375 league shots	87	0.95	82.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 240 league shots	20	0.84	16.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 810	13	0.93	12.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 234 league shots	14	0.88	12.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 338	5	0.91	4.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 338	2	0.91	1.8
Total adds up	389	0.95	368.1

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Where Vegueros Don Benito shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

389 of 389 shots shown

40.1%

156 of 389 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 69 / 127 54% · avg 2.0 ft 34 of the 69 makes assisted league 60% 138pts

MID 33 / 111 30% · avg 15.0 ft 18 of the 33 makes assisted league 35% 66pts

THREE 54 / 151 36% · avg 25.0 ft 47 of the 54 makes assisted league 31% 162pts

156 of 389 from the floor, 366 points, + 55 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

99 of 156 makes were assisted (63%): 34 + 18 + 47.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Vegueros Don Benito

33% 29% 39%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Vegueros Don Benito

30% 8% 43% 19%

League

34% 42% 17%

How we counted it

Vegueros Don Benito: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	116 drives + 32 post-ups + 168 catch and shoot + 73 pull-ups = 389

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Sebastián Borba Injured SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/69 shots 62.4 expected 80 scored ▲ +17.6

Vukoje Černigoj Injured PF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

19/52 shots 48.8 expected 49 scored ▲ +0.2

Brett Calhoun SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

53/124 shots 120.0 expected 120 scored ▲ 0.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.