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Velanidies Tripoli

Founded 1989 in Tripoli

Gymnastirio tou Mainalou, holding 7 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Velanidies Tripoli's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Velanidies Tripoli's points say about 11 wins in 22 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

10.7Points say

86.1Scored a game

86.4Allowed a game

−0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 894
Points allowed	1 901
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0037
To the power of 14	1.0530
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0530)	48.71%
× 22 games played	10.72
Wins the points say	10.7 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Velanidies Tripoli won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

19.7 %

Velanidies Tripoli give it away on 19.7 % of trips against the league's 18.5 %. Fewer is better: 11th of 12.

VET 19.7 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: 332 ÷ 1 687 possessions	19.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

55.7 %

Velanidies Tripoli shoot 55.7 % effective. The league shoots 54.7 %. That is 3rd of 12.

VET 55.7 %

League 54.7 %

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: (688 + ½ × 193) ÷ 1 408	55.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	54.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Weakness

Few trips to the line

28.8

Velanidies Tripoli attempt 28.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.1, so 10th of 12.

VET 28.8 %

League 31.1 %

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: 406 tries ÷ 1 408 shots	28.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Best shot-maker

Xenofon Jovičić

#75 · PG

69/133shots

161points

+20.1vs expected

How we counted it

69 made of 133, 23 of them threes	69/133
Points: 2 × 69 + 23	161
His shots are worth (expected)	140.9
Above expected	161 − 140.9 = +20.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 12

VET 55.7 %

League 54.7 %

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: (688 + ½ × 193) ÷ 1 408	55.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	54.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 12

VET 19.7 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: 332 ÷ 1 687 possessions	19.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 12

VET 27.4 %

League 27.4 %

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: 189 ÷ (189 + 501)	27.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	27.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 12

VET 28.8 %

League 31.1 %

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: 406 tries ÷ 1 408 shots	28.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−7.7

Over 11 games Velanidies Tripoli's shots were worth 725.7 points and they scored 718 from the floor: 0.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−7.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 316 + 86	718
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	725.7
Shot-making	−7.7
A game	−0.70

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Velanidies Tripoli
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive45 % of 257 league shots	24	0.89	21.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 393	3	0.89	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 393	5	0.89	4.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 229	14	0.92	12.8
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 229	2	0.92	1.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 229	2	0.92	1.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 247 league shots	33	0.75	24.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 339	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 339	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 541 league shots	45	0.76	34.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 745	11	0.78	8.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 745	9	0.78	7.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 745	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive62 % of 1 214 league shots	109	1.24	135.0
Rim · Drive · second chance64 % of 201 league shots	13	1.28	16.7
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 470 league shots	29	1.30	37.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 960	7	1.25	8.8
Rim · Post-up63 % of 352 league shots	35	1.25	43.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 414	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 414	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot62 % of 325 league shots	28	1.25	35.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	12	1.28	15.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 532	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 215	10	1.25	12.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 215	1	1.25	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 215	6	1.25	7.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	13	1.22	15.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	9	1.22	11.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 275	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 463	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 463	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 815 league shots	138	1.07	148.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 326 league shots	26	0.97	25.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 367 league shots	24	1.11	26.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 550	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Pull-up31 % of 435 league shots	38	0.92	35.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 611	3	0.96	2.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 611	5	0.96	4.8
Total adds up	674	1.08	725.7

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Where Velanidies Tripoli shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

674 of 674 shots shown

46.9%

316 of 674 from the floor, 11 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 162 / 260 62% · avg 2.0 ft 99 of the 162 makes assisted league 63% 324pts

MID 68 / 151 45% · avg 14.2 ft 29 of the 68 makes assisted league 41% 136pts

THREE 86 / 263 33% · avg 25.3 ft 79 of the 86 makes assisted league 36% 258pts

316 of 674 from the floor, 718 points, + 168 from the line

The dots cover 11 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

207 of 316 makes were assisted (66%): 99 + 29 + 79.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 11 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Velanidies Tripoli

39% 22% 39%

League

38% 21% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Velanidies Tripoli

32% 9% 40% 19%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Velanidies Tripoli: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	215 drives + 59 post-ups + 271 catch and shoot + 129 pull-ups = 674

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Xenofon Jovičić Injured PG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

69/133 shots 140.9 expected 161 scored ▲ +20.1

Ernesto Caballero SF 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/72 shots 77.0 expected 88 scored ▲ +11.0

Antonios Bolz PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/57 shots 61.2 expected 61 scored ▼ −0.2

Vincenzo Iglesias SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

56/120 shots 130.0 expected 128 scored ▼ −2.0

Sokratis Lukić PF 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1

47/101 shots 108.8 expected 106 scored ▼ −2.8

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Charilaos Palacios PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

19/51 shots 54.9 expected 41 scored ▼ −13.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.