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Velluti Senigallia

Founded 1973 in Senigallia

Palestra della Rotonda, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Velluti Senigallia's wins match its points

+0.8 wins

Velluti Senigallia's points say about 11 wins in 13 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

11.2Points say

81.8Scored a game

71.8Allowed a game

+10.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 063
Points allowed	933
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8777
To the power of 14	0.1610
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.1610)	86.13%
× 13 games played	11.20
Wins the points say	11.2 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Velluti Senigallia won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

111.3

Velluti Senigallia score 111.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.6. That is 1st of 14.

VES 111.3

League 100.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 063 points ÷ 955 possessions	111.3
League mean, 14 clubs	100.6
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

54.9 %

Velluti Senigallia shoot 54.9 % effective. The league shoots 48.3 %. That is 1st of 14.

VES 54.9 %

League 48.3 %

How we counted it

Velluti Senigallia: (405 + ½ × 128) ÷ 855	54.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

22.2

Velluti Senigallia attempt 22.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 19.0, so 2nd of 14.

VES 22.2 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Velluti Senigallia: 190 tries ÷ 855 shots	22.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Ansano Carrillo

#99 · SG

55/113shots

136points

+27.3vs expected

How we counted it

55 made of 113, 26 of them threes	55/113
Points: 2 × 55 + 26	136
His shots are worth (expected)	108.7
Above expected	136 − 108.7 = +27.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 14

VES 54.9 %

League 48.3 %

How we counted it

Velluti Senigallia: (405 + ½ × 128) ÷ 855	54.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

VES 15.0 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Velluti Senigallia: 143 ÷ 955 possessions	15.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 14

VES 24.2 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Velluti Senigallia: 105 ÷ (105 + 329)	24.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 14

VES 22.2 %

League 19.0 %

How we counted it

Velluti Senigallia: 190 tries ÷ 855 shots	22.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+44.3

Over 6 games Velluti Senigallia's shots were worth 361.7 points and they scored 406 from the floor: 7.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+44.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 175 + 56	406
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	361.7
Shot-making	+44.3
A game	+7.39

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Velluti Senigallia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 240 league shots	21	0.73	15.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 329	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 326	10	0.77	7.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 249 league shots	10	0.77	7.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 417 league shots	26	0.82	21.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 520	4	0.80	3.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 520	2	0.80	1.6
Rim · Drive56 % of 919 league shots	60	1.12	67.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 350	6	1.14	6.8
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 249 league shots	22	1.22	26.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 350	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	11	1.14	12.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	5	1.14	5.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	14	1.14	16.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	2	1.14	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	5	1.14	5.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	4	1.14	4.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 784	3	1.14	3.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 341	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 431 league shots	105	0.97	101.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 253 league shots	13	0.74	9.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 879	8	0.94	7.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 879	2	0.94	1.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 274 league shots	15	0.89	13.3
Total adds up	371	0.97	361.7

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Where Velluti Senigallia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

371 of 371 shots shown

47.2%

175 of 371 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 85 / 137 62% · avg 2.0 ft 50 of the 85 makes assisted league 60% 170pts

MID 34 / 84 41% · avg 14.1 ft 17 of the 34 makes assisted league 38% 68pts

THREE 56 / 150 37% · avg 25.1 ft 51 of the 56 makes assisted league 31% 168pts

175 of 371 from the floor, 406 points, + 65 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

118 of 175 makes were assisted (67%): 50 + 17 + 51.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Velluti Senigallia

37% 23% 40%

League

33% 24% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Velluti Senigallia

32% 8% 45% 15%

League

33% 44% 17%

Velluti Senigallia lean on post-ups: 8.4 % of its shots against the league's 6.5 %.

How we counted it

Velluti Senigallia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	120 drives + 31 post-ups + 166 catch and shoot + 54 pull-ups = 371

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ansano Carrillo SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 1.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

55/113 shots 108.7 expected 136 scored ▲ +27.3

Andrea Golubović SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 4

45/93 shots 90.8 expected 111 scored ▲ +20.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.