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Vigenjci Zreče

Founded 1967 in Zreče

Dvorana pod Roglo, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Vigenjci Zreče's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Vigenjci Zreče's points say about 2 wins in 18 league games. It has 3. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

3Wins so far

2.5Points say

63.5Scored a game

72.4Allowed a game

−8.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 143
Points allowed	1 303
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1400
To the power of 14	6.2600
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 6.2600)	13.77%
× 18 games played	2.48
Wins the points say	2.5 adds up

Wins so far	3
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Vigenjci Zreče won 2 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

88.5

Vigenjci Zreče score 88.5 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.8. That is 10th of 10.

VIZ 88.5

League 99.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 143 points ÷ 1 291 possessions	88.5
League mean, 10 clubs	99.8
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

Cold shooting

43.2 %

Vigenjci Zreče shoot 43.2 % effective. The league shoots 47.2 %. That is 10th of 10.

VIZ 43.2 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Vigenjci Zreče: (436 + ½ × 140) ÷ 1 170	43.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.8 %

Vigenjci Zreče give it away on 17.8 % of trips against the league's 15.5 %. Fewer is better: 10th of 10.

VIZ 17.8 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Vigenjci Zreče: 230 ÷ 1 291 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 10

VIZ 43.2 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Vigenjci Zreče: (436 + ½ × 140) ÷ 1 170	43.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 10

VIZ 17.8 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Vigenjci Zreče: 230 ÷ 1 291 possessions	17.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 10

VIZ 23.2 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Vigenjci Zreče: 164 ÷ (164 + 544)	23.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 10

VIZ 16.7 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Vigenjci Zreče: 195 tries ÷ 1 170 shots	16.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−52.7

Over 8 games Vigenjci Zreče's shots were worth 457.7 points and they scored 405 from the floor: 6.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−52.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 177 + 51	405
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	457.7
Shot-making	−52.7
A game	−6.59

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Vigenjci Zreče
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 228 league shots	29	0.75	21.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	6	0.75	4.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	9	0.75	6.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	10	0.70	7.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot33 % of 217 league shots	26	0.66	17.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	5	0.66	3.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	4	0.66	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 378 league shots	38	0.75	28.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	5	0.73	3.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 852 league shots	76	1.18	89.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	7	1.21	8.5
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 254 league shots	20	1.27	25.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	18	1.20	21.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	9	1.20	10.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	10	0.84	8.4
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	2	0.84	1.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	3	0.84	2.5
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	2	0.84	1.7
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 274 league shots	114	0.85	96.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 214 league shots	26	0.88	23.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	22	0.83	18.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	4	0.83	3.3
Three · Pull-up30 % of 276 league shots	32	0.90	28.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	6	0.87	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	4	0.87	3.5
Total adds up	502	0.91	457.7

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Where Vigenjci Zreče shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

502 of 502 shots shown

35.3%

177 of 502 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 78 / 136 57% · avg 2.1 ft 45 of the 78 makes assisted league 60% 156pts

MID 48 / 141 34% · avg 14.8 ft 21 of the 48 makes assisted league 34% 96pts

THREE 51 / 225 23% · avg 25.3 ft 37 of the 51 makes assisted league 30% 153pts

177 of 502 from the floor, 405 points, + 59 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

103 of 177 makes were assisted (58%): 45 + 21 + 37.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Vigenjci Zreče

27% 28% 45%

League

33% 25% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Vigenjci Zreče

33% 42% 18%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Vigenjci Zreče: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	168 drives + 32 post-ups + 211 catch and shoot + 91 pull-ups = 502

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Jean Polat SF 24 y

Modest21–40

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/87 shots 72.6 expected 64 scored ▼ −8.6

Črtomir Bonn PG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

45/146 shots 131.1 expected 109 scored ▼ −22.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.