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Vinari Prokuplje

Founded 1954 in Prokuplje

Dvorana pod Hisarom, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Vinari Prokuplje's wins match its points

−0.7 wins

Vinari Prokuplje's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

7.7Points say

79.0Scored a game

77.0Allowed a game

+2.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 027
Points allowed	1 001
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9747
To the power of 14	0.6984
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6984)	58.88%
× 13 games played	7.65
Wins the points say	7.7 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Vinari Prokuplje won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

21.9 %

Vinari Prokuplje win back 21.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.1 %. That is 13th of 14.

VIP 21.9 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Vinari Prokuplje: 91 ÷ (91 + 324)	21.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Strength

A solid defence

105.9

Vinari Prokuplje let in 105.9 per 100 trips against the league's 107.6. Lower is better: 3rd of 14.

VIP 105.9

League 107.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 001 allowed ÷ 945 possessions	105.9
League mean, 14 clubs	107.6
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

53.9 %

Vinari Prokuplje shoot 53.9 % effective. The league shoots 52.1 %. That is 3rd of 14.

VIP 53.9 %

League 52.1 %

How we counted it

Vinari Prokuplje: (370 + ½ × 125) ÷ 802	53.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	52.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Rayan Alemany

#56 · SG

56/101shots

133points

+27.2vs expected

How we counted it

56 made of 101, 21 of them threes	56/101
Points: 2 × 56 + 21	133
His shots are worth (expected)	105.8
Above expected	133 − 105.8 = +27.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 14

VIP 53.9 %

League 52.1 %

How we counted it

Vinari Prokuplje: (370 + ½ × 125) ÷ 802	53.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	52.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

VIP 17.6 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Vinari Prokuplje: 167 ÷ 948 possessions	17.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 14

VIP 21.9 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Vinari Prokuplje: 91 ÷ (91 + 324)	21.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 14

VIP 27.3 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Vinari Prokuplje: 219 tries ÷ 802 shots	27.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+28.1

Over 6 games Vinari Prokuplje's shots were worth 386.9 points and they scored 415 from the floor: 4.7 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+28.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 180 + 55	415
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	386.9
Shot-making	+28.1
A game	+4.69

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Vinari Prokuplje
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 284	20	0.77	15.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 284	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 284	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 284	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 141	9	0.83	7.5
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 225	17	0.90	15.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 225	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 225	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 357 league shots	29	0.81	23.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 483	2	0.81	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 483	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 483	2	0.81	1.6
Rim · Drive62 % of 893 league shots	64	1.24	79.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 362	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 297 league shots	27	1.29	34.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 362	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 52 % of 209	12	1.04	12.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 52 % of 209	1	1.04	1.1
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 235	8	1.27	10.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 235	2	1.27	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 235	2	1.27	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 902	4	1.21	4.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 902	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 902	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 298	4	1.04	4.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 298	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 298	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 325 league shots	81	1.03	83.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 226 league shots	12	1.02	12.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 754	14	1.04	14.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 754	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Pull-up38 % of 287 league shots	21	1.15	24.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 377	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 377	3	1.15	3.4
Total adds up	366	1.06	386.9

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Where Vinari Prokuplje shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

366 of 366 shots shown

49.2%

180 of 366 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 90 / 131 69% · avg 2.0 ft 40 of the 90 makes assisted league 60% 180pts

MID 35 / 92 38% · avg 14.7 ft 18 of the 35 makes assisted league 39% 70pts

THREE 55 / 143 39% · avg 25.1 ft 46 of the 55 makes assisted league 34% 165pts

180 of 366 from the floor, 415 points, + 93 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

104 of 180 makes were assisted (58%): 40 + 18 + 46.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Vinari Prokuplje

36% 25% 39%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Vinari Prokuplje

36% 39% 19%

League

34% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Vinari Prokuplje: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	132 drives + 24 post-ups + 142 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 366

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Rayan Alemany SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

56/101 shots 105.8 expected 133 scored ▲ +27.2

Colby Chapman SF 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/50 shots 54.1 expected 51 scored ▼ −3.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.