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Viñateros San Rafael

Founded 1939 in San Rafael

Gimnasio del Cañón del Atuel, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Viñateros San Rafael's wins match its points

−0.3 wins

Viñateros San Rafael's points say about 3 wins in 15 league games. It has 3. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

3Wins so far

3.3Points say

77.7Scored a game

85.0Allowed a game

−7.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 165
Points allowed	1 275
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0944
To the power of 14	3.5365
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.5365)	22.04%
× 15 games played	3.31
Wins the points say	3.3 adds up

Wins so far	3
Difference	−0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Viñateros San Rafael won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

103.6

Viñateros San Rafael score 103.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 110.0. That is 16th of 16.

VSR 103.6

League 110.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 165 points ÷ 1 125 possessions	103.6
League mean, 16 clubs	110.0
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Weakness

Weak on the glass

19.8 %

Viñateros San Rafael win back 19.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 16th of 16.

VSR 19.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Viñateros San Rafael: 100 ÷ (100 + 406)	19.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Weakness

Few trips to the line

24.1

Viñateros San Rafael attempt 24.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.7, so 15th of 16.

VSR 24.1 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Viñateros San Rafael: 228 tries ÷ 945 shots	24.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

Best shot-maker

Enrique Perea

#82 · SF

36/78shots

92points

+11.7vs expected

How we counted it

36 made of 78, 20 of them threes	36/78
Points: 2 × 36 + 20	92
His shots are worth (expected)	80.3
Above expected	92 − 80.3 = +11.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 16

VSR 53.7 %

League 53.6 %

How we counted it

Viñateros San Rafael: (435 + ½ × 144) ÷ 945	53.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.6 %
Rank, 16 clubs	7th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 16

VSR 18.2 %

League 17.8 %

How we counted it

Viñateros San Rafael: 205 ÷ 1 125 possessions	18.2 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 16th of 16

VSR 19.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Viñateros San Rafael: 100 ÷ (100 + 406)	19.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	16th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 16

VSR 24.1 %

League 27.7 %

How we counted it

Viñateros San Rafael: 228 tries ÷ 945 shots	24.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	15th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+15.2

Over 7 games Viñateros San Rafael's shots were worth 482.8 points and they scored 498 from the floor: 2.2 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+15.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 210 + 78	498
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	482.8
Shot-making	+15.2
A game	+2.17

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Viñateros San Rafael
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 235 league shots	15	0.83	12.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 333	3	0.84	2.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	6	0.78	4.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 352	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot46 % of 204 league shots	19	0.92	17.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 265	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 418 league shots	32	0.71	22.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 581	6	0.72	4.3
Rim · Drive63 % of 980 league shots	73	1.26	91.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	9	1.25	11.3
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 361 league shots	22	1.26	27.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 532	5	1.25	6.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	17	1.32	22.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	1	1.32	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 253	1	1.32	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot65 % of 220 league shots	12	1.30	15.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	7	1.28	9.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 365	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 2 290	2	1.26	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	8	1.04	8.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 638	5	1.04	5.2
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 520 league shots	136	1.07	145.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance28 % of 221 league shots	19	0.84	16.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 254 league shots	17	1.06	18.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 025	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Pull-up34 % of 294 league shots	20	1.03	20.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 414	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	451	1.07	482.8

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Where Viñateros San Rafael shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

451 of 451 shots shown

46.6%

210 of 451 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 102 / 153 67% · avg 2.1 ft 62 of the 102 makes assisted league 63% 204pts

MID 30 / 87 35% · avg 14.8 ft 18 of the 30 makes assisted league 40% 60pts

THREE 78 / 211 37% · avg 25.1 ft 68 of the 78 makes assisted league 35% 234pts

210 of 451 from the floor, 498 points, + 63 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

148 of 210 makes were assisted (70%): 62 + 18 + 68.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Viñateros San Rafael

34% 19% 47%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Viñateros San Rafael

31% 48% 15%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Viñateros San Rafael: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	140 drives + 26 post-ups + 217 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 451

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Enrique Perea SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

36/78 shots 80.3 expected 92 scored ▲ +11.7

Iñaki Blasco SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 4

37/82 shots 89.7 expected 94 scored ▲ +4.3

Dino Gil PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/57 shots 56.0 expected 60 scored ▲ +4.0

Gilbert Santiago SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/105 shots 112.0 expected 105 scored ▼ −7.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.