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Vinogradniki Ptuj

Founded 1983 in Ptuj

Dvorana pod gradom, holding 7 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Vinogradniki Ptuj's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Vinogradniki Ptuj's points say about 12 wins in 18 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

12.0Points say

94.4Scored a game

89.9Allowed a game

+4.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 699
Points allowed	1 618
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9523
To the power of 14	0.5047
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5047)	66.46%
× 18 games played	11.96
Wins the points say	12.0 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Vinogradniki Ptuj won 2 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

123.1

Vinogradniki Ptuj score 123.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 117.5. That is 1st of 10.

VPT 123.1

League 117.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 699 points ÷ 1 380 possessions	123.1
League mean, 10 clubs	117.5
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

60.2 %

Vinogradniki Ptuj shoot 60.2 % effective. The league shoots 57.5 %. That is 1st of 10.

VPT 60.2 %

League 57.5 %

How we counted it

Vinogradniki Ptuj: (590 + ½ × 187) ÷ 1 135	60.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	57.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

36.6

Vinogradniki Ptuj attempt 36.6 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 33.3, so 2nd of 10.

VPT 36.6 %

League 33.3 %

How we counted it

Vinogradniki Ptuj: 415 tries ÷ 1 135 shots	36.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	33.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Best shot-maker

Adeoye Ehimare

#76 · SG

62/113shots

153points

+25.3vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 113, 29 of them threes	62/113
Points: 2 × 62 + 29	153
His shots are worth (expected)	127.7
Above expected	153 − 127.7 = +25.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 10

VPT 60.2 %

League 57.5 %

How we counted it

Vinogradniki Ptuj: (590 + ½ × 187) ÷ 1 135	60.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	57.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 10

VPT 18.2 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Vinogradniki Ptuj: 251 ÷ 1 380 possessions	18.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 10

VPT 28.3 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Vinogradniki Ptuj: 151 ÷ (151 + 383)	28.3 %
League mean, 10 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 10

VPT 36.6 %

League 33.3 %

How we counted it

Vinogradniki Ptuj: 415 tries ÷ 1 135 shots	36.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	33.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+43.4

Over 9 games Vinogradniki Ptuj's shots were worth 618.6 points and they scored 662 from the floor: 4.8 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+43.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 284 + 94	662
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	618.6
Shot-making	+43.4
A game	+4.82

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Vinogradniki Ptuj
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	12	0.77	9.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 44 % of 1 130	16	0.87	14.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 44 % of 1 130	5	0.87	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	7	0.96	6.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	3	0.96	2.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	2	0.96	1.9
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 354 league shots	49	0.82	40.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	5	0.86	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	6	0.86	5.2
Rim · Drive64 % of 860 league shots	69	1.27	87.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 349	11	1.29	14.2
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 344 league shots	37	1.36	50.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 349	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Post-up60 % of 251 league shots	27	1.20	32.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 300	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 300	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot66 % of 210 league shots	21	1.32	27.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 341	2	1.36	2.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 341	6	1.36	8.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	12	1.30	15.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	1	1.30	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	3	1.30	3.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	2	1.30	2.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	11	1.15	12.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	6	1.15	6.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	1	1.15	1.1
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	1	1.15	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 247 league shots	127	1.15	146.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 683	11	1.14	12.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 224 league shots	18	1.06	19.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 683	1	1.14	1.1
Three · Pull-up40 % of 311 league shots	42	1.19	49.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 408	7	1.19	8.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 408	4	1.19	4.8
Total adds up	542	1.14	618.6

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Where Vinogradniki Ptuj shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

542 of 542 shots shown

52.4%

284 of 542 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 149 / 201 74% · avg 1.9 ft 84 of the 149 makes assisted league 65% 298pts

MID 41 / 110 37% · avg 14.5 ft 17 of the 41 makes assisted league 44% 82pts

THREE 94 / 231 41% · avg 25.2 ft 81 of the 94 makes assisted league 38% 282pts

284 of 542 from the floor, 662 points, + 211 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

182 of 284 makes were assisted (64%): 84 + 17 + 81.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Vinogradniki Ptuj

37% 20% 43%

League

39% 20% 40%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Vinogradniki Ptuj

29% 10% 37% 24%

League

31% 9% 40% 19%

Vinogradniki Ptuj lean on pull-ups: 24.2 % of its shots against the league's 19.3 %.

How we counted it

Vinogradniki Ptuj: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	157 drives + 56 post-ups + 198 catch and shoot + 131 pull-ups = 542

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Adeoye Ehimare SG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

62/113 shots 127.7 expected 153 scored ▲ +25.3

Rudi Manojlović Star PG 26 y

Elite81–99

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

65/122 shots 139.6 expected 152 scored ▲ +12.4

Jeffrey Cline SG 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

35/62 shots 72.8 expected 84 scored ▲ +11.2

Samo Olaniyan PG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/58 shots 64.6 expected 59 scored ▼ −5.6

Teo Ağaoğlu SF 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/62 shots 70.3 expected 64 scored ▼ −6.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.