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Yazmacılar Tokat

Founded 1957 in Tokat

Yeşilırmak Kıyısı Salonu, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Yazmacılar Tokat's wins run ahead of its points

+1.4 wins

Yazmacılar Tokat's points say about 14 wins in 18 league games. It has 15. The table has been a little kind.

15Wins so far

13.6Points say

79.3Scored a game

73.2Allowed a game

+6.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 427
Points allowed	1 317
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9229
To the power of 14	0.3253
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3253)	75.46%
× 18 games played	13.58
Wins the points say	13.6 adds up

Wins so far	15
Difference	+1.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Yazmacılar Tokat won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

108.8

Yazmacılar Tokat score 108.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.3. That is 1st of 10.

YAT 108.8

League 103.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 427 points ÷ 1 312 possessions	108.8
League mean, 10 clubs	103.3
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

Hot shooting

51.6 %

Yazmacılar Tokat shoot 51.6 % effective. The league shoots 49.6 %. That is 2nd of 10.

YAT 51.6 %

League 49.6 %

How we counted it

Yazmacılar Tokat: (527 + ½ × 158) ÷ 1 174	51.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	49.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.7 %

Yazmacılar Tokat give it away on 15.7 % of trips against the league's 16.8 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 10.

YAT 15.7 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Yazmacılar Tokat: 206 ÷ 1 312 possessions	15.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Best shot-maker

Alperen Bradić

#90 · SG

80/151shots

195points

+53.5vs expected

How we counted it

80 made of 151, 35 of them threes	80/151
Points: 2 × 80 + 35	195
His shots are worth (expected)	141.5
Above expected	195 − 141.5 = +53.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 10

YAT 51.6 %

League 49.6 %

How we counted it

Yazmacılar Tokat: (527 + ½ × 158) ÷ 1 174	51.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	49.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 10

YAT 15.7 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Yazmacılar Tokat: 206 ÷ 1 312 possessions	15.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 10

YAT 27.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Yazmacılar Tokat: 173 ÷ (173 + 450)	27.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	2nd of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 10

YAT 24.4 %

League 23.6 %

How we counted it

Yazmacılar Tokat: 286 tries ÷ 1 174 shots	24.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	23.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+20.5

Over 8 games Yazmacılar Tokat's shots were worth 502.5 points and they scored 523 from the floor: 2.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+20.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 225 + 73	523
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	502.5
Shot-making	+20.5
A game	+2.56

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Yazmacılar Tokat
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 206 league shots	22	0.80	17.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 307	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 307	8	0.73	5.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 202	7	0.72	5.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 202	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 202	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 202	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 265	16	0.67	10.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 265	10	0.67	6.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 265	5	0.67	3.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 265	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 361 league shots	41	0.76	31.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 491	12	0.75	9.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 491	5	0.75	3.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 491	3	0.75	2.3
Rim · Drive60 % of 847 league shots	78	1.19	93.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	15	1.22	18.3
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 243 league shots	37	1.27	46.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	15	1.21	18.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 218	12	1.15	13.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 218	2	1.15	2.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 218	1	1.15	1.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	9	1.21	10.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	4	1.21	4.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 146	7	0.95	6.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 146	1	0.95	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 146	3	0.95	2.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 255 league shots	114	0.93	105.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 230 league shots	15	0.98	14.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 693	15	0.97	14.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 693	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 259 league shots	31	0.89	27.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 336	5	0.89	4.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 336	4	0.89	3.6
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 336	2	0.89	1.8
Total adds up	515	0.98	502.5

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Where Yazmacılar Tokat shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

515 of 515 shots shown

43.7%

225 of 515 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 102 / 179 57% · avg 2.0 ft 47 of the 102 makes assisted league 60% 204pts

MID 50 / 137 37% · avg 14.7 ft 20 of the 50 makes assisted league 37% 100pts

THREE 73 / 199 37% · avg 25.2 ft 65 of the 73 makes assisted league 32% 219pts

225 of 515 from the floor, 523 points, + 88 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

132 of 225 makes were assisted (59%): 47 + 20 + 65.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Yazmacılar Tokat

35% 27% 39%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Yazmacılar Tokat

34% 37% 23%

League

33% 43% 18%

Yazmacılar Tokat lean on pull-ups: 22.5 % of its shots against the league's 18.0 %.

How we counted it

Yazmacılar Tokat: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	175 drives + 31 post-ups + 193 catch and shoot + 116 pull-ups = 515

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Alperen Bradić SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

80/151 shots 141.5 expected 195 scored ▲ +53.5

Özcan Dereli PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

46/100 shots 102.3 expected 100 scored ▼ −2.3

Cenk Jaume SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/68 shots 64.6 expected 54 scored ▼ −10.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.