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Zondas San Juan

Founded 1926 in San Juan

Gimnasio del Dique Ullum, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Zondas San Juan's wins run ahead of its points

+3.2 wins

Zondas San Juan's points say about 9 wins in 22 league games. It has 12. The table has been a little kind.

12Wins so far

8.8Points say

74.6Scored a game

76.8Allowed a game

−2.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 641
Points allowed	1 690
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0299
To the power of 14	1.5097
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5097)	39.85%
× 22 games played	8.77
Wins the points say	8.8 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+3.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Zondas San Juan won 5 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.5 %

Zondas San Juan give it away on 17.5 % of trips against the league's 16.4 %. Fewer is better: 10th of 12.

ZSJ 17.5 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Zondas San Juan: 283 ÷ 1 618 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

101.4

Zondas San Juan score 101.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.7. That is 9th of 12.

ZSJ 101.4

League 103.7

How we counted it

100 × 1 641 points ÷ 1 618 possessions	101.4
League mean, 12 clubs	103.7
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Strength

A solid defence

104.3

Zondas San Juan let in 104.3 per 100 trips against the league's 103.7. Lower is better: 5th of 12.

ZSJ 104.3

League 103.7

How we counted it

100 × 1 690 allowed ÷ 1 621 possessions	104.3
League mean, 12 clubs	103.7
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Best shot-maker

Jackson Boyer

#68 · PG

50/99shots

118points

+17.0vs expected

How we counted it

50 made of 99, 18 of them threes	50/99
Points: 2 × 50 + 18	118
His shots are worth (expected)	101.0
Above expected	118 − 101.0 = +17.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 12

ZSJ 49.7 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Zondas San Juan: (608 + ½ × 182) ÷ 1 407	49.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 12

ZSJ 17.5 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Zondas San Juan: 283 ÷ 1 618 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 12

ZSJ 25.3 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Zondas San Juan: 194 ÷ (194 + 572)	25.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 12

ZSJ 24.7 %

League 23.8 %

How we counted it

Zondas San Juan: 347 tries ÷ 1 407 shots	24.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+16.5

Over 9 games Zondas San Juan's shots were worth 559.5 points and they scored 576 from the floor: 1.8 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 249 + 78	576
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	559.5
Shot-making	+16.5
A game	+1.84

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Zondas San Juan
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 276 league shots	23	0.72	16.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	5	0.74	3.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 251 league shots	17	0.80	13.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	5	0.77	3.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 504 league shots	30	0.72	21.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	8	0.73	5.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	2	0.73	1.5
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 115 league shots	96	1.19	114.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	13	1.23	16.0
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 353 league shots	30	1.37	41.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Post-up63 % of 202 league shots	14	1.26	17.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 264	4	1.26	5.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 264	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	23	1.20	27.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	6	1.22	7.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	11	0.98	10.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	6	0.98	5.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	3	0.98	2.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 749 league shots	141	0.99	139.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 257 league shots	20	0.96	19.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 271 league shots	19	1.04	19.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 2 307	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 392 league shots	27	0.96	25.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	4	0.94	3.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	3	0.94	2.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	1	0.94	0.9
Total adds up	542	1.03	559.5

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Where Zondas San Juan shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

610 of 610 shots shown

45.1%

275 of 610 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 145 / 225 64% · avg 2.0 ft 74 of the 145 makes assisted league 61% 290pts

MID 47 / 116 41% · avg 15.0 ft 21 of the 47 makes assisted league 37% 94pts

THREE 83 / 269 31% · avg 25.3 ft 68 of the 83 makes assisted league 32% 249pts

275 of 610 from the floor, 633 points, + 131 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

163 of 275 makes were assisted (59%): 74 + 21 + 68.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Zondas San Juan

38% 18% 44%

League

34% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Zondas San Juan

35% 43% 16%

League

33% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Zondas San Juan: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	192 drives + 26 post-ups + 235 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 542

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Jackson Boyer PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/99 shots 101.0 expected 118 scored ▲ +17.0

Daniel Clay Injured SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/61 shots 57.4 expected 72 scored ▲ +14.6

Franco Alegre SF 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/54 shots 60.2 expected 72 scored ▲ +11.8

Evan Bridges SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

34/75 shots 78.7 expected 84 scored ▲ +5.3

Hamish Aitken SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

65/147 shots 154.2 expected 145 scored ▼ −9.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.