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Detroit Muscle

Founded 1951 in Detroit

Woodward Arena, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Detroit Muscle's wins trail its points

−1.4 wins

Detroit Muscle's points say about 3 wins in 7 league games. It has 2. The table has been a little unkind.

2Wins so far

3.4Points say

126.1Scored a game

126.9Allowed a game

−0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 7 league games	883
Points allowed	888
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0057
To the power of 14	1.0823
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0823)	48.02%
× 7 games played	3.36
Wins the points say	3.4 adds up

Wins so far	2
Difference	−1.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Detroit Muscle won 0 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.8 %

Detroit Muscle win back 22.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.9 %. That is 27th of 30.

DET 22.8 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: 71 ÷ (71 + 240)	22.8 %
League mean, 30 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 30 clubs	27th of 30

Weakness

Careless with the ball

14.5 %

Detroit Muscle give it away on 14.5 % of trips against the league's 13.6 %. Fewer is better: 23rd of 30.

DET 14.5 %

League 13.6 %

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: 104 ÷ 716 possessions	14.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs	13.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs	23rd of 30

Weakness

Few trips to the line

27.1

Detroit Muscle attempt 27.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 30.5, so 23rd of 30.

DET 27.1 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: 171 tries ÷ 630 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 30 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 30 clubs	23rd of 30

Best shot-maker

Aidan Glover

#1 · SG

49/98shots

120points

+5.3vs expected

How we counted it

49 made of 98, 22 of them threes	49/98
Points: 2 × 49 + 22	120
His shots are worth (expected)	114.7
Above expected	120 − 114.7 = +5.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 30

DET 58.5 %

League 58.3 %

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: (309 + ½ × 119) ÷ 630	58.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs	58.3 %
Rank, 30 clubs	13th of 30

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 23rd of 30

DET 14.5 %

League 13.6 %

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: 104 ÷ 716 possessions	14.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs	13.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs	23rd of 30

Reboundsown misses won back · 27th of 30

DET 22.8 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: 71 ÷ (71 + 240)	22.8 %
League mean, 30 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 30 clubs	27th of 30

Free throwstries per shot · 23rd of 30

DET 27.1 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: 171 tries ÷ 630 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 30 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 30 clubs	23rd of 30

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+1.0

Over 5 games Detroit Muscle's shots were worth 520.0 points and they scored 521 from the floor: 0.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+1.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 219 + 83	521
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	520.0
Shot-making	+1.0
A game	+0.20

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Detroit Muscle
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 383 league shots	12	0.89	10.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	7	0.84	5.9
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 343 league shots	12	0.82	9.8
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438	2	0.81	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot47 % of 426 league shots	4	0.93	3.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	4	0.90	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 968 league shots	25	0.91	22.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	8	0.89	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	8	0.89	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	1	0.89	0.9
Rim · Drive65 % of 2 289 league shots	68	1.31	89.1
Rim · Drive · second chance67 % of 262 league shots	8	1.34	10.7
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 732 league shots	23	1.36	31.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 3 380	6	1.32	7.9
Rim · Post-up65 % of 656 league shots	14	1.31	18.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	2	1.34	2.7
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 622 league shots	15	1.33	20.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	1	1.36	1.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	5	1.36	6.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	2	1.36	2.7
Rim · Pull-up66 % of 322 league shots	7	1.32	9.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	2	1.30	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	2	1.30	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	1	1.30	1.3
Three · Drive40 % of 351 league shots	11	1.21	13.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	1	1.16	1.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	5	1.16	5.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 6 241	1	1.15	1.2
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 6 241	1	1.15	1.2
Three · Catch and shoot39 % of 3 419 league shots	129	1.17	151.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 449 league shots	17	1.11	18.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 574 league shots	13	1.08	14.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 4 530	1	1.15	1.2
Three · Pull-up37 % of 854 league shots	23	1.11	25.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	1	1.13	1.1
Total adds up	447	1.16	520.0

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Where Detroit Muscle shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

447 of 447 shots shown

49.0%

219 of 447 from the floor, 5 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 101 / 156 65% · avg 1.9 ft 65 of the 101 makes assisted league 66% 202pts

MID 35 / 83 42% · avg 14.3 ft 20 of the 35 makes assisted league 43% 70pts

THREE 83 / 208 40% · avg 25.3 ft 79 of the 83 makes assisted league 39% 249pts

219 of 447 from the floor, 521 points, + 102 from the line

The dots cover 5 of 7 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

164 of 219 makes were assisted (75%): 65 + 20 + 79.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 5 games whose streams are stored, of 7 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 7 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Detroit Muscle

35% 19% 47%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Detroit Muscle

32% 43% 19%

League

31% 9% 41% 20%

How we counted it

Detroit Muscle: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	141 drives + 32 post-ups + 191 catch and shoot + 83 pull-ups = 447

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Aidan Glover SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

49/98 shots 114.7 expected 120 scored ▲ +5.3

Austin Banks SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

35/73 shots 86.3 expected 90 scored ▲ +3.7

Alfred George PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

27/55 shots 65.4 expected 58 scored ▼ −7.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.