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Faroi Alexandroupoli

Founded 1983 in Alexandroupoli

Gymnastirio tou Evrou, holding 8 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Faroi Alexandroupoli's wins match its points

−0.5 wins

Faroi Alexandroupoli's points say about 1 wins in 5 league games. It has 1. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

1Wins so far

1.5Points say

92.8Scored a game

98.8Allowed a game

−6.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 5 league games	464
Points allowed	494
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0647
To the power of 14	2.4040
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.4040)	29.38%
× 5 games played	1.47
Wins the points say	1.5 adds up

Wins so far	1
Difference	−0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Faroi Alexandroupoli won 0 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 5. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

131.4

Faroi Alexandroupoli let in 131.4 per 100 trips against the league's 119.7. Lower is better: 12th of 12.

FAA 131.4

League 119.7

How we counted it

100 × 494 allowed ÷ 376 possessions	131.4
League mean, 12 clubs	119.7
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

34.4

Faroi Alexandroupoli attempt 34.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 29.1, so 1st of 12.

FAA 34.4 %

League 29.1 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 110 tries ÷ 320 shots	34.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	29.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.6 %

Faroi Alexandroupoli give it away on 16.6 % of trips against the league's 17.5 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 12.

FAA 16.6 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 63 ÷ 380 possessions	16.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 12

FAA 58.8 %

League 58.4 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: (167 + ½ × 42) ÷ 320	58.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	58.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 12

FAA 16.6 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 63 ÷ 380 possessions	16.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 12

FAA 25.3 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 40 ÷ (40 + 118)	25.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 12

FAA 34.4 %

League 29.1 %

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: 110 tries ÷ 320 shots	34.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	29.1 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−1.2

Over 3 games Faroi Alexandroupoli's shots were worth 222.2 points and they scored 221 from the floor: 0.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−1.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 96 + 29	221
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	222.2
Shot-making	−1.2
A game	−0.41

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 5.

Faroi Alexandroupoli
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	8	0.86	6.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	4	0.86	3.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	6	0.86	5.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	13	0.86	11.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 461	1	0.86	0.9
Rim · Drive66 % of 330 league shots	32	1.32	42.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 519	6	1.34	8.1
Rim · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 519	12	1.34	16.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 519	3	1.34	4.0
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 863	7	1.31	9.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 863	1	1.31	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 863	1	1.31	1.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 863	6	1.31	7.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 863	1	1.31	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 863	1	1.31	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 863	1	1.31	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 986	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 986	1	1.15	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 529 league shots	47	1.12	52.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 728	8	1.10	8.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 728	15	1.10	16.4
Three · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 986	9	1.15	10.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 986	1	1.15	1.1
Total adds up	195	1.14	222.2

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Where Faroi Alexandroupoli shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

195 of 195 shots shown

49.2%

96 of 195 from the floor, 3 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 50 / 71 70% · avg 2.0 ft 27 of the 50 makes assisted league 66% 100pts

MID 17 / 41 42% · avg 14.5 ft 13 of the 17 makes assisted league 45% 34pts

THREE 29 / 83 35% · avg 25.4 ft 26 of the 29 makes assisted league 39% 87pts

96 of 195 from the floor, 221 points, + 55 from the line

The dots cover 3 of 5 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

66 of 96 makes were assisted (69%): 27 + 13 + 26.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 3 games whose streams are stored, of 5 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 5 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Faroi Alexandroupoli

36% 21% 43%

League

37% 20% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Faroi Alexandroupoli

35% 44% 14%

League

30% 9% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Faroi Alexandroupoli: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	68 drives + 15 post-ups + 85 catch and shoot + 27 pull-ups = 195