Watching North America and Europe 12 leagues
Founded 1929 in Kaunas
Santakos salė, holding 11 000
The four factors
The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.
They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.
Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.
Fortai Kaunas let in 123.4 per 100 trips against the league's 119.4. Lower is better: 9th of 10.
| 100 × 380 allowed ÷ 308 possessions | 123.4 |
|---|---|
| League mean, 10 clubs | 119.4 |
| Rank, 10 clubs | 9th of 10 |
Fortai Kaunas shoot 56.6 % effective. The league shoots 57.7 %. That is 7th of 10.
| Fortai Kaunas: (131 + ½ × 39) ÷ 266 | 56.6 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 10 clubs | 57.7 % |
| Rank, 10 clubs | 7th of 10 |
Fortai Kaunas win back 28.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 29.1 %. That is 7th of 10.
| Fortai Kaunas: 38 ÷ (38 + 94) | 28.8 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 10 clubs | 29.1 % |
| Rank, 10 clubs | 7th of 10 |
| Fortai Kaunas: (131 + ½ × 39) ÷ 266 | 56.6 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 10 clubs | 57.7 % |
| Rank, 10 clubs | 7th of 10 |
| Fortai Kaunas: 57 ÷ 310 possessions | 18.4 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 10 clubs | 18.6 % |
| Rank, 10 clubs | 5th of 10 |
| Fortai Kaunas: 38 ÷ (38 + 94) | 28.8 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 10 clubs | 29.1 % |
| Rank, 10 clubs | 7th of 10 |
| Fortai Kaunas: 77 tries ÷ 266 shots | 28.9 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 10 clubs | 28.3 % |
| Rank, 10 clubs | 5th of 10 |
Shot-making
Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.
Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.
Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.
Over 2 games Fortai Kaunas's shots were worth 163.8 points and they scored 157 from the floor: 3.4 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.
| Points: 2 × 70 + 17 | 157 |
|---|---|
| Expected points, the squad's shots added up | 163.8 |
| Shot-making | −6.8 |
| A game | −3.40 |
Expected points are measured against league rates through round 4.
| Kind of shot | Shots | Worth | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 2 | 0.87 | 1.7 |
| Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 4 | 0.87 | 3.5 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.9 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 4 | 0.87 | 3.5 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.9 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.9 |
| Mid-range · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 5 | 0.87 | 4.3 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 2 | 0.87 | 1.7 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.9 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 43 % of 249 | 2 | 0.87 | 1.7 |
| Rim · Drive69 % of 212 league shots | 26 | 1.38 | 35.8 |
| Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 348 | 3 | 1.35 | 4.0 |
| Rim · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 348 | 10 | 1.35 | 13.5 |
| Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 348 | 1 | 1.35 | 1.3 |
| Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 68 % of 534 | 5 | 1.35 | 6.8 |
| Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 68 % of 534 | 6 | 1.35 | 8.1 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 68 % of 534 | 1 | 1.35 | 1.4 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 68 % of 534 | 1 | 1.35 | 1.4 |
| Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 68 % of 534 | 5 | 1.35 | 6.8 |
| Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 68 % of 534 | 1 | 1.35 | 1.4 |
| Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 560 | 2 | 1.13 | 2.2 |
| Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 560 | 1 | 1.13 | 1.1 |
| Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 560 | 1 | 1.13 | 1.1 |
| Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 309 league shots | 32 | 1.11 | 35.4 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 419 | 3 | 1.12 | 3.3 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 419 | 9 | 1.12 | 10.1 |
| Three · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 560 | 8 | 1.13 | 9.0 |
| Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 560 | 1 | 1.13 | 1.1 |
| Total adds up | 139 | 1.18 | 163.8 |
Shot quality is counted from the 2 games whose streams are stored, of 4 played.
Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 4 games are counted.
| Fortai Kaunas: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups | 46 drives + 10 post-ups + 58 catch and shoot + 25 pull-ups = 139 |
|---|
