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Lakeland Swans

Founded 2008 in Lakeland

Mirror Lake Pavilion, holding 5 000

⁠
Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Lakeland Swans's wins trail its points

−2.4 wins

Lakeland Swans's points say about 6 wins in 18 league games. It has 4. The table has been a little unkind.

4Wins so far
6.4Points say
106.7Scored a game
111.3Allowed a game
−4.6Margin
How we counted it
Points scored, 18 league games1 920
Points allowed2 003
Allowed ÷ scored1.0432
To the power of 141.8085
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.8085)35.61%
× 18 games played6.41
Wins the points say6.4 adds up
Wins so far4
Difference−2.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Lakeland Swans won 0 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 60. It is final when the season closes.

⁠
The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

50.4 %

Lakeland Swans shoot 50.4 % effective. The league shoots 53.8 %. That is 30th of 30.

LKL 50.4 %
League 53.8 %
How we counted it
Lakeland Swans: (706 + ½ × 215) ÷ 1 61550.4 %
League mean, 30 clubs53.8 %
Rank, 30 clubs30th of 30
Weakness

A thin attack

108.1

Lakeland Swans score 108.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 116.3. That is 29th of 30.

LKL 108.1
League 116.3
How we counted it
100 × 1 920 points ÷ 1 776 possessions108.1
League mean, 30 clubs116.3
Rank, 30 clubs29th of 30
Strength

A solid defence

112.6

Lakeland Swans let in 112.6 per 100 trips against the league's 116.3. Lower is better: 2nd of 30.

LKL 112.6
League 116.3
How we counted it
100 × 2 003 allowed ÷ 1 779 possessions112.6
League mean, 30 clubs116.3
Rank, 30 clubs2nd of 30

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 30th of 30
LKL 50.4 %
League 53.8 %
How we counted it
Lakeland Swans: (706 + ½ × 215) ÷ 1 61550.4 %
League mean, 30 clubs53.8 %
Rank, 30 clubs30th of 30
Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 27th of 30
LKL 14.7 %
League 13.4 %
How we counted it
Lakeland Swans: 261 ÷ 1 776 possessions14.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs13.4 %
Rank, 30 clubs27th of 30
Reboundsown misses won back · 24th of 30
LKL 24.7 %
League 26.6 %
How we counted it
Lakeland Swans: 210 ÷ (210 + 640)24.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs26.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs24th of 30
Free throwstries per shot · 21st of 30
LKL 24.5 %
League 25.2 %
How we counted it
Lakeland Swans: 395 tries ÷ 1 615 shots24.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs25.2 %
Rank, 30 clubs21st of 30
More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

league 0 Round 29: −24 Round 31: −5 Round 33: −4 Round 34: −11 Round 36: −13 Round 37: +7 Round 39: +11 Round 42: −5 Round 44: −8 Round 46: −12 Round 48: −7 Round 49: −13 Round 51: −8 Round 52: −11 Round 54: −2 Round 57: −6 Round 58: +15 Round 60: +17

Offence

league 116 Round 29: 106 Round 31: 116 Round 33: 100 Round 34: 119 Round 36: 101 Round 37: 110 Round 39: 118 Round 42: 121 Round 44: 100 Round 46: 93 Round 48: 101 Round 49: 96 Round 51: 105 Round 52: 102 Round 54: 107 Round 57: 111 Round 58: 124 Round 60: 115

Shooting %

league 54 Round 29: 52 Round 31: 55 Round 33: 47 Round 34: 57 Round 36: 45 Round 37: 53 Round 39: 52 Round 42: 54 Round 44: 46 Round 46: 49 Round 48: 48 Round 49: 49 Round 51: 51 Round 52: 46 Round 54: 48 Round 57: 53 Round 58: 53 Round 60: 48

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.