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Los Angeles Catamounts

Founded 1948 in Los Angeles

Sunset Arena, holding 12 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Los Angeles Catamounts's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Los Angeles Catamounts's points say about 6 wins in 8 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

5.9Points say

132.3Scored a game

122.9Allowed a game

+9.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 8 league games	1 058
Points allowed	983
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9291
To the power of 14	0.3572
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3572)	73.68%
× 8 games played	5.89
Wins the points say	5.9 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Los Angeles Catamounts won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

10.9 %

Los Angeles Catamounts give it away on 10.9 % of trips against the league's 13.6 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 30.

LAX 10.9 %

League 13.6 %

How we counted it

Los Angeles Catamounts: 88 ÷ 805 possessions	10.9 %
League mean, 30 clubs	13.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs	1st of 30

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.5 %

Los Angeles Catamounts win back 22.5 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.9 %. That is 28th of 30.

LAX 22.5 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Los Angeles Catamounts: 75 ÷ (75 + 259)	22.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 30 clubs	28th of 30

Strength

A strong attack

131.4

Los Angeles Catamounts score 131.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 125.6. That is 6th of 30.

LAX 131.4

League 125.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 058 points ÷ 805 possessions	131.4
League mean, 30 clubs	125.6
Rank, 30 clubs	6th of 30

Best shot-maker

Chad Farrell

#74 · SG

39/72shots

92points

+8.2vs expected

How we counted it

39 made of 72, 14 of them threes	39/72
Points: 2 × 39 + 14	92
His shots are worth (expected)	83.8
Above expected	92 − 83.8 = +8.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 30

LAX 60.5 %

League 58.3 %

How we counted it

Los Angeles Catamounts: (369 + ½ × 118) ÷ 708	60.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs	58.3 %
Rank, 30 clubs	6th of 30

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 30

LAX 10.9 %

League 13.6 %

How we counted it

Los Angeles Catamounts: 88 ÷ 805 possessions	10.9 %
League mean, 30 clubs	13.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs	1st of 30

Reboundsown misses won back · 28th of 30

LAX 22.5 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Los Angeles Catamounts: 75 ÷ (75 + 259)	22.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 30 clubs	28th of 30

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 30

LAX 33.3 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Los Angeles Catamounts: 236 tries ÷ 708 shots	33.3 %
League mean, 30 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 30 clubs	9th of 30

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+22.5

Over 6 games Los Angeles Catamounts's shots were worth 637.5 points and they scored 660 from the floor: 3.7 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+22.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 283 + 94	660
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	637.5
Shot-making	+22.5
A game	+3.75

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Los Angeles Catamounts
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 383 league shots	14	0.89	12.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	6	0.84	5.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 343 league shots	10	0.82	8.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438	2	0.81	1.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438	1	0.81	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot47 % of 426 league shots	18	0.93	16.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	3	0.90	2.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 968 league shots	28	0.91	25.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	4	0.89	3.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	6	0.89	5.3
Rim · Drive65 % of 2 289 league shots	102	1.31	133.6
Rim · Drive · second chance67 % of 262 league shots	13	1.34	17.5
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 732 league shots	21	1.36	28.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 3 380	2	1.32	2.6
Rim · Post-up65 % of 656 league shots	20	1.31	26.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	4	1.34	5.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	5	1.34	6.7
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	2	1.34	2.7
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 622 league shots	28	1.33	37.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	1	1.36	1.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	7	1.36	9.5
Rim · Pull-up66 % of 322 league shots	8	1.32	10.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	3	1.30	3.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	3	1.30	3.9
Three · Drive40 % of 351 league shots	20	1.21	24.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	1	1.16	1.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	3	1.16	3.5
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	1	1.16	1.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 6 241	3	1.15	3.5
Three · Catch and shoot39 % of 3 419 league shots	120	1.17	140.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 449 league shots	11	1.11	12.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 574 league shots	23	1.08	24.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 4 530	3	1.15	3.5
Three · Pull-up37 % of 854 league shots	32	1.11	35.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	7	1.13	7.9
Total adds up	543	1.17	637.5

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Where Los Angeles Catamounts shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

543 of 543 shots shown

52.1%

283 of 543 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 143 / 219 65% · avg 1.9 ft 81 of the 143 makes assisted league 66% 286pts

MID 46 / 97 47% · avg 14.4 ft 23 of the 46 makes assisted league 43% 92pts

THREE 94 / 227 41% · avg 25.5 ft 87 of the 94 makes assisted league 39% 282pts

283 of 543 from the floor, 660 points, + 154 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 8 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

191 of 283 makes were assisted (67%): 81 + 23 + 87.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 8 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 8 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Los Angeles Catamounts

40% 18% 42%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Los Angeles Catamounts

34% 9% 40% 17%

League

31% 9% 41% 20%

How we counted it

Los Angeles Catamounts: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	186 drives + 47 post-ups + 216 catch and shoot + 94 pull-ups = 543

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Chad Farrell SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

39/72 shots 83.8 expected 92 scored ▲ +8.2

Allen Faulkner SG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/59 shots 70.0 expected 78 scored ▲ +8.0

Bennett Faulkner SF 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

37/74 shots 87.9 expected 88 scored ▲ +0.1

Ronan Ogunleye PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

37/73 shots 85.7 expected 85 scored ▼ −0.7

Frederick Gates PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/76 shots 89.2 expected 85 scored ▼ −4.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.