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Minneapolis Northern Lights

Founded 1989 in Minneapolis

Mill District Arena, holding 9 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Minneapolis Northern Lights's wins match its points

−0.6 wins

Minneapolis Northern Lights's points say about 3 wins in 8 league games. It has 2. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

2Wins so far

2.6Points say

123.8Scored a game

130.6Allowed a game

−6.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 8 league games	990
Points allowed	1 045
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0556
To the power of 14	2.1317
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.1317)	31.93%
× 8 games played	2.55
Wins the points say	2.6 adds up

Wins so far	2
Difference	−0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Minneapolis Northern Lights won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

120.7

Minneapolis Northern Lights score 120.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 125.6. That is 25th of 30.

MIN 120.7

League 125.6

How we counted it

100 × 990 points ÷ 820 possessions	120.7
League mean, 30 clubs	125.6
Rank, 30 clubs	25th of 30

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.3 %

Minneapolis Northern Lights win back 23.3 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.9 %. That is 25th of 30.

MIN 23.3 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Minneapolis Northern Lights: 85 ÷ (85 + 280)	23.3 %
League mean, 30 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 30 clubs	25th of 30

Weakness

Cold shooting

56.7 %

Minneapolis Northern Lights shoot 56.7 % effective. The league shoots 58.3 %. That is 24th of 30.

MIN 56.7 %

League 58.3 %

How we counted it

Minneapolis Northern Lights: (346 + ½ × 115) ÷ 712	56.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs	58.3 %
Rank, 30 clubs	24th of 30

Best shot-maker

Arno Kapor

#66 · SG

54/95shots

128points

+18.5vs expected

How we counted it

54 made of 95, 20 of them threes	54/95
Points: 2 × 54 + 20	128
His shots are worth (expected)	109.5
Above expected	128 − 109.5 = +18.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 24th of 30

MIN 56.7 %

League 58.3 %

How we counted it

Minneapolis Northern Lights: (346 + ½ × 115) ÷ 712	56.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs	58.3 %
Rank, 30 clubs	24th of 30

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 17th of 30

MIN 13.8 %

League 13.6 %

How we counted it

Minneapolis Northern Lights: 113 ÷ 820 possessions	13.8 %
League mean, 30 clubs	13.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs	17th of 30

Reboundsown misses won back · 25th of 30

MIN 23.3 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Minneapolis Northern Lights: 85 ÷ (85 + 280)	23.3 %
League mean, 30 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 30 clubs	25th of 30

Free throwstries per shot · 15th of 30

MIN 31.3 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Minneapolis Northern Lights: 223 tries ÷ 712 shots	31.3 %
League mean, 30 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 30 clubs	15th of 30

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−30.4

Over 6 games Minneapolis Northern Lights's shots were worth 613.4 points and they scored 583 from the floor: 5.1 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−30.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 253 + 77	583
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	613.4
Shot-making	−30.4
A game	−5.07

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Minneapolis Northern Lights
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 383 league shots	20	0.89	17.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	10	0.84	8.4
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 343 league shots	13	0.82	10.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot47 % of 426 league shots	16	0.93	15.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	2	0.90	1.8
Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 968 league shots	37	0.91	33.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	8	0.89	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	7	0.89	6.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	1	0.89	0.9
Rim · Drive65 % of 2 289 league shots	74	1.31	96.9
Rim · Drive · second chance67 % of 262 league shots	10	1.34	13.4
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 732 league shots	31	1.36	42.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 3 380	4	1.32	5.3
Rim · Post-up65 % of 656 league shots	25	1.31	32.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	2	1.34	2.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	1	1.34	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	2	1.34	2.7
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 622 league shots	17	1.33	22.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	3	1.36	4.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	13	1.36	17.7
Rim · Pull-up66 % of 322 league shots	3	1.32	4.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	1	1.30	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	5	1.30	6.5
Three · Drive40 % of 351 league shots	7	1.21	8.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	2	1.16	2.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	3	1.16	3.5
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 6 241	1	1.15	1.2
Three · Catch and shoot39 % of 3 419 league shots	134	1.17	157.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 449 league shots	6	1.11	6.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 574 league shots	18	1.08	19.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 4 530	3	1.15	3.5
Three · Pull-up37 % of 854 league shots	37	1.11	40.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	6	1.13	6.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	4	1.13	4.5
Total adds up	531	1.16	613.4

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Where Minneapolis Northern Lights shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

531 of 531 shots shown

47.6%

253 of 531 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 128 / 191 67% · avg 2.0 ft 84 of the 128 makes assisted league 66% 256pts

MID 48 / 119 40% · avg 14.2 ft 29 of the 48 makes assisted league 43% 96pts

THREE 77 / 221 35% · avg 25.2 ft 70 of the 77 makes assisted league 39% 231pts

253 of 531 from the floor, 583 points, + 153 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 8 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

183 of 253 makes were assisted (72%): 84 + 29 + 70.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 8 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 8 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Minneapolis Northern Lights

36% 22% 42%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Minneapolis Northern Lights

31% 9% 40% 21%

League

31% 9% 41% 20%

How we counted it

Minneapolis Northern Lights: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	162 drives + 47 post-ups + 213 catch and shoot + 109 pull-ups = 531

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Arno Kapor SG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 4

54/95 shots 109.5 expected 128 scored ▲ +18.5

Archie Carr SF 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/55 shots 63.0 expected 69 scored ▲ +6.0

Cole Alston PG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/64 shots 74.8 expected 74 scored ▼ −0.8

Caleb Aykaç SF 33 y

Strong61–80

Age: 33
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

24/61 shots 68.5 expected 61 scored ▼ −7.5

Craig Gould PF 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

26/66 shots 78.9 expected 53 scored ▼ −25.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.