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Philadelphia Keystones

Founded 1949 in Philadelphia

Fairmount Arena, holding 11 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Philadelphia Keystones's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Philadelphia Keystones's points say about 5 wins in 7 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

5.1Points say

132.3Scored a game

123.4Allowed a game

+8.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 7 league games	926
Points allowed	864
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9330
To the power of 14	0.3790
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3790)	72.52%
× 7 games played	5.08
Wins the points say	5.1 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Philadelphia Keystones won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

37.7

Philadelphia Keystones attempt 37.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 30.5, so 1st of 30.

PHI 37.7 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Philadelphia Keystones: 232 tries ÷ 616 shots	37.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 30 clubs	1st of 30

Strength

Safe with the ball

12.2 %

Philadelphia Keystones give it away on 12.2 % of trips against the league's 13.6 %. Fewer is better: 5th of 30.

PHI 12.2 %

League 13.6 %

How we counted it

Philadelphia Keystones: 87 ÷ 715 possessions	12.2 %
League mean, 30 clubs	13.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs	5th of 30

Strength

A solid defence

120.7

Philadelphia Keystones let in 120.7 per 100 trips against the league's 125.6. Lower is better: 6th of 30.

PHI 120.7

League 125.6

How we counted it

100 × 864 allowed ÷ 716 possessions	120.7
League mean, 30 clubs	125.6
Rank, 30 clubs	6th of 30

Best shot-maker

Živko Žerjav

#8 · SF

56/94shots

137points

+24.9vs expected

How we counted it

56 made of 94, 25 of them threes	56/94
Points: 2 × 56 + 25	137
His shots are worth (expected)	112.1
Above expected	137 − 112.1 = +24.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 30

PHI 59.5 %

League 58.3 %

How we counted it

Philadelphia Keystones: (310 + ½ × 113) ÷ 616	59.5 %
League mean, 30 clubs	58.3 %
Rank, 30 clubs	9th of 30

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 30

PHI 12.2 %

League 13.6 %

How we counted it

Philadelphia Keystones: 87 ÷ 715 possessions	12.2 %
League mean, 30 clubs	13.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs	5th of 30

Reboundsown misses won back · 22nd of 30

PHI 23.8 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Philadelphia Keystones: 70 ÷ (70 + 224)	23.8 %
League mean, 30 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 30 clubs	22nd of 30

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 30

PHI 37.7 %

League 30.5 %

How we counted it

Philadelphia Keystones: 232 tries ÷ 616 shots	37.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs	30.5 %
Rank, 30 clubs	1st of 30

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+22.8

Over 5 games Philadelphia Keystones's shots were worth 509.2 points and they scored 532 from the floor: 4.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+22.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 225 + 82	532
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	509.2
Shot-making	+22.8
A game	+4.57

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Philadelphia Keystones
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 383 league shots	13	0.89	11.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611	4	0.84	3.3
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 343 league shots	11	0.82	9.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438	4	0.81	3.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438	3	0.81	2.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438	1	0.81	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot47 % of 426 league shots	14	0.93	13.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	4	0.90	3.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	3	0.90	2.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 968 league shots	32	0.91	29.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	3	0.89	2.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316	4	0.89	3.5
Rim · Drive65 % of 2 289 league shots	68	1.31	89.1
Rim · Drive · second chance67 % of 262 league shots	8	1.34	10.7
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 732 league shots	21	1.36	28.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 3 380	1	1.32	1.3
Rim · Post-up65 % of 656 league shots	19	1.31	24.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	1	1.34	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822	2	1.34	2.7
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 622 league shots	17	1.33	22.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	3	1.36	4.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	3	1.36	4.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929	1	1.36	1.4
Rim · Pull-up66 % of 322 league shots	8	1.32	10.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484	4	1.30	5.2
Three · Drive40 % of 351 league shots	8	1.21	9.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521	6	1.16	7.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 6 241	3	1.15	3.5
Three · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 6 241	1	1.15	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot39 % of 3 419 league shots	101	1.17	118.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 449 league shots	10	1.11	11.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 574 league shots	18	1.08	19.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 4 530	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Pull-up37 % of 854 league shots	25	1.11	27.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	5	1.13	5.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	6	1.13	6.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142	2	1.13	2.3
Total adds up	442	1.15	509.2

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Where Philadelphia Keystones shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

442 of 442 shots shown

50.9%

225 of 442 from the floor, 5 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 106 / 156 68% · avg 1.9 ft 68 of the 106 makes assisted league 66% 212pts

MID 37 / 99 37% · avg 14.6 ft 21 of the 37 makes assisted league 43% 74pts

THREE 82 / 187 44% · avg 25.4 ft 78 of the 82 makes assisted league 39% 246pts

225 of 442 from the floor, 532 points, + 140 from the line

The dots cover 5 of 7 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

167 of 225 makes were assisted (74%): 68 + 21 + 78.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 5 games whose streams are stored, of 7 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 7 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Philadelphia Keystones

35% 22% 42%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Philadelphia Keystones

30% 10% 40% 20%

League

31% 9% 41% 20%

How we counted it

Philadelphia Keystones: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	131 drives + 45 post-ups + 177 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 442

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Živko Žerjav SF 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 2

56/94 shots 112.1 expected 137 scored ▲ +24.9

Ellis Frota SG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 4

38/72 shots 80.9 expected 91 scored ▲ +10.1

Ignas Olekas PG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/51 shots 60.4 expected 62 scored ▲ +1.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.