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Rockford Sawyers

Founded 2006 in Rockford

Rock River Fieldhouse, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Rockford Sawyers's wins match its points

+0.6 wins

Rockford Sawyers's points say about 10 wins in 18 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far
10.4Points say
116.4Scored a game
113.8Allowed a game
+2.6Margin
How we counted it
Points scored, 18 league games2 095
Points allowed2 049
Allowed ÷ scored0.9780
To the power of 140.7328
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7328)57.71%
× 18 games played10.39
Wins the points say10.4 adds up
Wins so far11
Difference+0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Rockford Sawyers won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 60. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

28.4 %

Rockford Sawyers win back 28.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.6 %. That is 6th of 30.

RKF 28.4 %
League 26.6 %
How we counted it
Rockford Sawyers: 241 ÷ (241 + 609)28.4 %
League mean, 30 clubs26.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs6th of 30
Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

26.7

Rockford Sawyers attempt 26.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.2, so 6th of 30.

RKF 26.7 %
League 25.2 %
How we counted it
Rockford Sawyers: 437 tries ÷ 1 638 shots26.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs25.2 %
Rank, 30 clubs6th of 30
Strength

Safe with the ball

12.7 %

Rockford Sawyers give it away on 12.7 % of trips against the league's 13.4 %. Fewer is better: 8th of 30.

RKF 12.7 %
League 13.4 %
How we counted it
Rockford Sawyers: 224 ÷ 1 770 possessions12.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs13.4 %
Rank, 30 clubs8th of 30

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 19th of 30
RKF 53.3 %
League 53.8 %
How we counted it
Rockford Sawyers: (742 + ½ × 263) ÷ 1 63853.3 %
League mean, 30 clubs53.8 %
Rank, 30 clubs19th of 30
Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 30
RKF 12.7 %
League 13.4 %
How we counted it
Rockford Sawyers: 224 ÷ 1 770 possessions12.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs13.4 %
Rank, 30 clubs8th of 30
Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 30
RKF 28.4 %
League 26.6 %
How we counted it
Rockford Sawyers: 241 ÷ (241 + 609)28.4 %
League mean, 30 clubs26.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs6th of 30
Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 30
RKF 26.7 %
League 25.2 %
How we counted it
Rockford Sawyers: 437 tries ÷ 1 638 shots26.7 %
League mean, 30 clubs25.2 %
Rank, 30 clubs6th of 30
More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

league 0 Round 30: −7 Round 31: +14 Round 33: −12 Round 35: +19 Round 37: +5 Round 38: +5 Round 40: −11 Round 42: −8 Round 44: +15 Round 46: −4 Round 48: +13 Round 49: +5 Round 51: +8 Round 52: +7 Round 55: +12 Round 57: 0 Round 58: +10 Round 60: −13

Offence

league 116 Round 30: 116 Round 31: 121 Round 33: 91 Round 35: 123 Round 37: 120 Round 38: 122 Round 40: 104 Round 42: 110 Round 44: 117 Round 46: 115 Round 48: 121 Round 49: 127 Round 51: 113 Round 52: 127 Round 55: 128 Round 57: 129 Round 58: 141 Round 60: 109

Shooting %

league 54 Round 30: 51 Round 31: 61 Round 33: 42 Round 35: 54 Round 37: 53 Round 38: 58 Round 40: 46 Round 42: 55 Round 44: 53 Round 46: 47 Round 48: 53 Round 49: 58 Round 51: 48 Round 52: 55 Round 55: 57 Round 57: 59 Round 58: 58 Round 60: 53

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.