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Šanci Karlovac

Founded 1969 in Karlovac

Dvorana na Korani, holding 9 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Šanci Karlovac's wins match its points

−0.4 wins

Šanci Karlovac's points say about 2 wins in 5 league games. It has 2. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

2Wins so far

2.4Points say

96.4Scored a game

97.0Allowed a game

−0.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 5 league games	482
Points allowed	485
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0062
To the power of 14	1.0908
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0908)	47.83%
× 5 games played	2.39
Wins the points say	2.4 adds up

Wins so far	2
Difference	−0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Šanci Karlovac won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 5. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

125.0

Šanci Karlovac let in 125.0 per 100 trips against the league's 116.8. Lower is better: 12th of 12.

SAK 125.0

League 116.8

How we counted it

100 × 485 allowed ÷ 388 possessions	125.0
League mean, 12 clubs	116.8
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

63.0 %

Šanci Karlovac shoot 63.0 % effective. The league shoots 57.5 %. That is 2nd of 12.

SAK 63.0 %

League 57.5 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: (163 + ½ × 66) ÷ 311	63.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	57.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Weakness

Weak on the glass

21.9 %

Šanci Karlovac win back 21.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.2 %. That is 11th of 12.

SAK 21.9 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 32 ÷ (32 + 114)	21.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 12

SAK 63.0 %

League 57.5 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: (163 + ½ × 66) ÷ 311	63.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	57.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 12

SAK 18.2 %

League 19.3 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 72 ÷ 395 possessions	18.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	19.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 12

SAK 21.9 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 32 ÷ (32 + 114)	21.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 12

SAK 36.3 %

League 32.5 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 113 tries ÷ 311 shots	36.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	32.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+16.2

Over 3 games Šanci Karlovac's shots were worth 213.8 points and they scored 230 from the floor: 5.4 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+16.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 96 + 38	230
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	213.8
Shot-making	+16.2
A game	+5.41

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 5.

Šanci Karlovac
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	6	0.84	5.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	4	0.84	3.3
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	4	0.84	3.3
Mid-range · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	12	0.84	10.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 426	4	0.84	3.3
Rim · Drive70 % of 367 league shots	31	1.40	43.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 69 % of 552	2	1.38	2.8
Rim · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 69 % of 552	15	1.38	20.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 69 % of 552	1	1.38	1.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 69 % of 887	10	1.38	13.9
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 69 % of 887	4	1.38	5.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 69 % of 887	5	1.38	6.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 69 % of 887	2	1.38	2.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 913	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 913	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 913	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Catch and shoot39 % of 478 league shots	44	1.16	51.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 672	2	1.15	2.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 672	7	1.15	8.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 672	1	1.15	1.2
Three · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 913	10	1.13	11.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 913	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 913	3	1.13	3.4
Total adds up	181	1.18	213.8

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Where Šanci Karlovac shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

181 of 181 shots shown

53.0%

96 of 181 from the floor, 3 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 48 / 70 69% · avg 2.0 ft 37 of the 48 makes assisted league 68% 96pts

MID 10 / 36 28% · avg 14.3 ft 8 of the 10 makes assisted league 41% 20pts

THREE 38 / 75 51% · avg 25.3 ft 33 of the 38 makes assisted league 38% 114pts

96 of 181 from the floor, 230 points, + 46 from the line

The dots cover 3 of 5 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

78 of 96 makes were assisted (81%): 37 + 8 + 33.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 3 games whose streams are stored, of 5 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 5 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Šanci Karlovac

39% 20% 41%

League

40% 19% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Šanci Karlovac

35% 9% 34% 22%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	63 drives + 17 post-ups + 62 catch and shoot + 39 pull-ups = 181