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Spokane Smokejumpers

Founded 2007 in Spokane

Lilac City Arena, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Spokane Smokejumpers's wins run ahead of its points

+1.2 wins

Spokane Smokejumpers's points say about 9 wins in 18 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little kind.

10Wins so far
8.8Points say
118.0Scored a game
118.4Allowed a game
−0.4Margin
How we counted it
Points scored, 18 league games2 124
Points allowed2 132
Allowed ÷ scored1.0038
To the power of 141.0540
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0540)48.68%
× 18 games played8.76
Wins the points say8.8 adds up
Wins so far10
Difference+1.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Spokane Smokejumpers won 2 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 60. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

120.5

Spokane Smokejumpers let in 120.5 per 100 trips against the league's 116.3. Lower is better: 28th of 30.

SPO 120.5
League 116.3
How we counted it
100 × 2 132 allowed ÷ 1 769 possessions120.5
League mean, 30 clubs116.3
Rank, 30 clubs28th of 30
Strength

A strong attack

119.3

Spokane Smokejumpers score 119.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 116.3. That is 5th of 30.

SPO 119.3
League 116.3
How we counted it
100 × 2 124 points ÷ 1 781 possessions119.3
League mean, 30 clubs116.3
Rank, 30 clubs5th of 30
Strength

Hot shooting

55.8 %

Spokane Smokejumpers shoot 55.8 % effective. The league shoots 53.8 %. That is 7th of 30.

SPO 55.8 %
League 53.8 %
How we counted it
Spokane Smokejumpers: (792 + ½ × 210) ÷ 1 60855.8 %
League mean, 30 clubs53.8 %
Rank, 30 clubs7th of 30

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 30
SPO 55.8 %
League 53.8 %
How we counted it
Spokane Smokejumpers: (792 + ½ × 210) ÷ 1 60855.8 %
League mean, 30 clubs53.8 %
Rank, 30 clubs7th of 30
Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 22nd of 30
SPO 14.1 %
League 13.4 %
How we counted it
Spokane Smokejumpers: 251 ÷ 1 781 possessions14.1 %
League mean, 30 clubs13.4 %
Rank, 30 clubs22nd of 30
Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 30
SPO 28.0 %
League 26.6 %
How we counted it
Spokane Smokejumpers: 212 ÷ (212 + 545)28.0 %
League mean, 30 clubs26.6 %
Rank, 30 clubs8th of 30
Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 30
SPO 25.9 %
League 25.2 %
How we counted it
Spokane Smokejumpers: 417 tries ÷ 1 608 shots25.9 %
League mean, 30 clubs25.2 %
Rank, 30 clubs12th of 30
More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

league 0 Round 29: +4 Round 31: −16 Round 33: +10 Round 36: −10 Round 38: +10 Round 39: +5 Round 41: −20 Round 43: +13 Round 45: +18 Round 46: +9 Round 48: −12 Round 50: −11 Round 52: −11 Round 53: +9 Round 55: −16 Round 56: −21 Round 59: +7 Round 60: +8

Offence

league 116 Round 29: 120 Round 31: 96 Round 33: 110 Round 36: 117 Round 38: 128 Round 39: 121 Round 41: 118 Round 43: 120 Round 45: 122 Round 46: 145 Round 48: 126 Round 50: 98 Round 52: 123 Round 53: 126 Round 55: 120 Round 56: 94 Round 59: 135 Round 60: 128

Shooting %

league 54 Round 29: 58 Round 31: 53 Round 33: 50 Round 36: 59 Round 38: 59 Round 39: 60 Round 41: 53 Round 43: 55 Round 45: 59 Round 46: 67 Round 48: 54 Round 50: 38 Round 52: 59 Round 53: 61 Round 55: 68 Round 56: 40 Round 59: 58 Round 60: 56

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.