Watching North America and Europe 12 leagues
Founded 1995 in Toronto
Lakeshore Centre, holding 10 000
The four factors
The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.
They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.
Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.
Toronto Northmen score 115.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 125.6. That is 30th of 30.
| 100 × 923 points ÷ 797 possessions | 115.8 |
|---|---|
| League mean, 30 clubs | 125.6 |
| Rank, 30 clubs | 30th of 30 |
Toronto Northmen shoot 54.3 % effective. The league shoots 58.3 %. That is 30th of 30.
| Toronto Northmen: (336 + ½ × 106) ÷ 717 | 54.3 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 30 clubs | 58.3 % |
| Rank, 30 clubs | 30th of 30 |
Toronto Northmen attempt 24.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 30.5, so 28th of 30.
| Toronto Northmen: 176 tries ÷ 717 shots | 24.5 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 30 clubs | 30.5 % |
| Rank, 30 clubs | 28th of 30 |
#65 · SG
| 63 made of 108, 18 of them threes | 63/108 |
|---|---|
| Points: 2 × 63 + 18 | 144 |
| His shots are worth (expected) | 125.8 |
| Above expected | 144 − 125.8 = +18.2 adds up |
| Toronto Northmen: (336 + ½ × 106) ÷ 717 | 54.3 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 30 clubs | 58.3 % |
| Rank, 30 clubs | 30th of 30 |
| Toronto Northmen: 113 ÷ 797 possessions | 14.2 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 30 clubs | 13.6 % |
| Rank, 30 clubs | 22nd of 30 |
| Toronto Northmen: 92 ÷ (92 + 271) | 25.3 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 30 clubs | 25.9 % |
| Rank, 30 clubs | 13th of 30 |
| Toronto Northmen: 176 tries ÷ 717 shots | 24.5 % |
|---|---|
| League mean, 30 clubs | 30.5 % |
| Rank, 30 clubs | 28th of 30 |
Shot-making
Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.
Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.
Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.
Over 6 games Toronto Northmen's shots were worth 621.9 points and they scored 589 from the floor: 5.5 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.
| Points: 2 × 254 + 81 | 589 |
|---|---|
| Expected points, the squad's shots added up | 621.9 |
| Shot-making | −32.9 |
| A game | −5.48 |
Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.
| Kind of shot | Shots | Worth | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-range · Drive44 % of 383 league shots | 18 | 0.89 | 16.0 |
| Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611 | 5 | 0.84 | 4.2 |
| Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 611 | 6 | 0.84 | 5.0 |
| Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 343 league shots | 8 | 0.82 | 6.5 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438 | 2 | 0.81 | 1.6 |
| Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 438 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.8 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot47 % of 426 league shots | 20 | 0.93 | 18.7 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558 | 2 | 0.90 | 1.8 |
| Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 558 | 2 | 0.90 | 1.8 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up46 % of 968 league shots | 47 | 0.91 | 42.8 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316 | 6 | 0.89 | 5.3 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316 | 11 | 0.89 | 9.8 |
| Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 1 316 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.9 |
| Rim · Drive65 % of 2 289 league shots | 96 | 1.31 | 125.7 |
| Rim · Drive · second chance67 % of 262 league shots | 8 | 1.34 | 10.7 |
| Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 732 league shots | 19 | 1.36 | 25.8 |
| Rim · Post-up65 % of 656 league shots | 24 | 1.31 | 31.4 |
| Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822 | 3 | 1.34 | 4.0 |
| Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 822 | 6 | 1.34 | 8.0 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 622 league shots | 18 | 1.33 | 24.0 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929 | 6 | 1.36 | 8.2 |
| Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 929 | 1 | 1.36 | 1.4 |
| Rim · Pull-up66 % of 322 league shots | 6 | 1.32 | 7.9 |
| Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484 | 2 | 1.30 | 2.6 |
| Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484 | 4 | 1.30 | 5.2 |
| Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 484 | 1 | 1.30 | 1.3 |
| Three · Drive40 % of 351 league shots | 13 | 1.21 | 15.8 |
| Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521 | 1 | 1.16 | 1.2 |
| Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 521 | 6 | 1.16 | 7.0 |
| Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 6 241 | 1 | 1.15 | 1.2 |
| Three · Catch and shoot39 % of 3 419 league shots | 119 | 1.17 | 139.6 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 449 league shots | 18 | 1.11 | 20.0 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 574 league shots | 12 | 1.08 | 12.9 |
| Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 4 530 | 7 | 1.15 | 8.1 |
| Three · Pull-up37 % of 854 league shots | 25 | 1.11 | 27.7 |
| Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142 | 10 | 1.13 | 11.4 |
| Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142 | 4 | 1.13 | 4.5 |
| Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 142 | 1 | 1.13 | 1.1 |
| Total adds up | 540 | 1.15 | 621.9 |
Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 8 played.
Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 8 games are counted.
| Toronto Northmen: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups | 172 drives + 45 post-ups + 205 catch and shoot + 118 pull-ups = 540 |
|---|
Expected points
The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.
It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.
Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.
A man is listed from 50 shots.
